It's Almost 2026. Here's What NOAA Is Predicting For January Weather

New Year's Day will usher in the middle month of the winter weather season. Prior to the beginning of the season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its Winter Outlook for 2025-2026. That forecast relied heavily on what was expected to be a weak La Niña pattern shaping the weather throughout the winter months. In its forecast for January 2026, the agency is essentially doubling down on that assertion. However, NOAA is also stressing that the overriding influence on this winter's weather is a "weak" La Niña system, so the impacts are not as dramatic as they would be in a typical La Niña season.

To that end, NOAA is expecting a sliver of the northernmost portion of the Lower 48 to be slightly cooler than normal in January, but that's it for the country. This colder-than-average area takes in western Minnesota, as well as most of North Dakota, and the northeastern quarter of Montana. The southeastern half of Alaska is also expected to experience slightly cooler temperatures. However, all hope is not lost for those hoping for colder weather, as the majority of the country is predicted to have an equal chance of being above or below average temperatures. That includes virtually all of the northern half of the continental U.S.

On the opposite end of the temperature forecast, roughly a third of the continental U.S. — encompassing much of the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Deep South, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast up to Southern New England — is expected to run a bit warmer than usual. This is very much at odds with the Old Farmer's Almanac's Winter Weather Outlook and, more specifically, its January forecast, which calls for many of those regions to definitely run cooler than average.

In a typical La Niña season, the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions receive higher than average precipitation. According to NOAA's prediction for January 2026, that will still hold at least somewhat true. But, given this is a relatively weak La Niña event, the effects aren't expected to be nearly as drastic as some years. Additionally, NOAA indicates that some of its weather models are at odds with a typical La Niña, so the agency isn't predicting a strong uptick in precipitation.

That said, there is still a wide swath of the Lower 48 which is expected to have at least some elevated level of precipitation. This area includes the Pacific Northwest, the top tier of the Intermountain and Upper Midwest regions, the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, as well as the upper portion of the Deep South. The western half of Alaska is also expected to have above average precipitation. The type of precipitation will vary throughout the month, at times coming in the form of snowstorms or blizzards, but also periods of rain and sleet. And more good news for snow fans: The NOAA's three-month forecast sees colder-than-average temps arriving in February or March for Washington, Montana, North and South Dakota, northern idaho, and the north half of Minnesota.

Unfortunately for those in the Southwest and Southeast, below-average precipitation is expected for the month. Many of those areas are already experiencing drought conditions. The remainder of the country is given equal chances to be either above or below on precipitation. This includes a wide swath that snakes from California through the middle of the Rocky Mountain Region before taking in most of the Midwest and Deep South. From that point, it narrows and slides northeast, taking in the Upper Deep South, Appalachians, and the Eastern Seaboard from Northern North Carolina to Maine.